Smart Money

@elerianm

Mohamed A. El-Erian

Rene M Kern Prof of Prac at Wharton. Allianz Advisor. Gramercy Chair. Chair of UnderArmour Board. Former Pimco CEO/co-CIO and President of Queens' Col Cambridge

Macro & rates1,117,237 followers

Activity

45.2

Track record

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Calls

Right / Wrong

0 / 0

Recent calls (last 14 days)

Openbullish10/26/2026
bullish on Treasury: It’s a classic safe-haven day in the US Treasury market—and we haven't seen one in quite a while! Tech jitters are driving a flight to quality, sending yield…
Openbullish10/22/2026
bullish on inflation: UK inflation jumped to 3.5% in September (up from 3.1% in August), topping the consensus forecast and hitting its highest level this year. The release reinfo…
Openbullish10/22/2026
bullish on yield: France has taken over the UK’s undesirable lead in the largest yield surge since the start of US-Israel attacks on Iran, while also pushing Italian yields ab…
Unclearbullish10/17/2026
bullish on CPI: Another good US economic number: September industrial production expanded by 0.7%, beating the 0.4% consensus forecast. This comes on the heels of yesterday’…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclearbullish10/16/2026
bullish on CPI: Yesterday’s hot US CPI inflation made headlines well beyond the financial media. Today’s PPI data is even more striking, both in absolute levels and relative…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear10/6/2026
Treasury: On two stubborn market indicators with broad influence: 1. Brent above $100 , even with Strait of Hormuz flows nearly back to pre-war levels. The important c…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear10/5/2026
Fed: Last week was mainly about bond market volatility, with evidence of spillover, and continued equity market resilience due to data and Fedspeak. This week, we…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear10/3/2026
jobs: The US jobs data is out and there are surprises: Job creation was only 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% and monthly earnings gr…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear10/3/2026
inflation: On inflation data, while most of us will wait for Japan's national data, I suspect the Bank of Japan will pay attention to the Tokyo measures released overni…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear10/3/2026
Treasury: Here’s the US Treasury market reaction to the soft jobs report. Note the continued retracement in 2-year yields as traders moderate Fed rate hike expectation…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear10/3/2026
Jobs: It’s US Jobs Friday. Consensus forecasts point to nonfarm payroll growth of around 85,000 for September, down from 162,000 in August. Other key indicators ar…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclearbullish10/2/2026
bullish on rate: Three things to note when considering the influences on US government bond yields: 1. While Fedspeak this week has struck a hawkish tone, it was not quite as…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclearbullish10/2/2026
bullish on jobs: Today's US data releases, which come ahead of tomorrow's more comprehensive jobs report, point to continued robust economic activity, solid labor market, and…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear10/2/2026
Treasury: Question: When you hear Treasury Secretary Bessent say we're just going to grow our way out of the bond crisis, does the market buy it? @elerianm: “I say the…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear10/1/2026
Fed: Good morning. A busy week of US economic data continues this morning with what's traditionally seen as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge: August PCE. Consen…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclearbearish9/30/2026
bearish on Treasury: Despite weaker-than-anticipated US economic data across both soft and hard metrics, US yields are rising yet again. The plunge in consumer confidence brought…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear9/29/2026
rate: Echoes of the early 1980s US policy mix? With no signs of meaningful fiscal consolidation, markets are increasingly turning to the Federal Reserve to counter…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear9/24/2026
inflation: From the @FT: "Surging government bond yields are a “major concern” to countries’ public finances given the mounting share of spending being consumed by debt…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclearbullish9/23/2026
bullish on inflation: Further signs of UK fiscal pressure ahead of next month’s budget: Driven partly by higher debt servicing costs and inflation, UK public sector borrowing hit …
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear9/19/2026
Fed: From Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's speech today, outlining "the initial findings of the independent review of the failure of Silicon Valley Ba…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear9/17/2026
Fed: On the markets' Federal Reserve expectations: As the Fed begins its two-day FOMC meeting, culminating tomorrow in an interest rate decision and the release o…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear9/17/2026
Treasury: Good morning. To illustrate how uncertain the current juncture is for the global economy and markets, here are four major questions. Each injects volatility …
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclearbullish9/17/2026
bullish on inflation: Good morning. UK inflation climbed to 3.1% in August on higher energy prices, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.6%. Matching consensus forecasts, …
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.
Unclear9/17/2026
Fed: Welcome to Fed Decision Day! It is striking to see the market pricing in a 90% (yes 90%) probability of a rate hike today despite mixed economic data, uneven…
No explicit outcome language found in follow-up tweets.

Not financial advice. Calls are detected automatically from public tweets; track record uses the author's own follow-up language, not market prices. Always verify before trading.